Integration of Spatial and Ecological Data in Evolutionary Studies
Preston, Jill C. , Davidse, Gerrit , Consiglio, Trisha , Jimenez, Ivan .
Future climate change and habitat tracking by highland grasses endemic to Central America.
Rapid global climate change constitutes a major challenge to patterns of biodiversity. Evidence from past and present responses of plant populations to environmental change suggests habitat tracking will be a major determinant of future species survival and community structure. Yet we are unaware of any study that has tested the influence of species niche properties on tracking distances to future habitat. In order to anticipate the ability of species to habitat track with changing climate, we modeled extent of future suitable habitat for 54 highland grass species endemic to Central America under the CCM3 doubling of CO2 model for 2050. We tested hypotheses that geographic range size and extent of future suitable habitat are major determinants of speciesí distance to habitat track, and that range size and extent of future suitable habitat are driven largely by species niche traits. As predicted, our analyses show extent of future suitable habitat negatively affects mean, minimum and variance of distance to habitat track. However, contrary to predictions, range size is also negatively related with measures of distance to habitat track. We demonstrate that both range size and extent of future suitable habitat are partially explained by niche breadth, but that niche position is less consistent in explaining range size and extent of future suitable habitat than predicted. Our study adds to the few examples demonstrating a positive relationship between realized niche breadth and range size for plants, and outlines the importance of extent of future suitable habitat and range size to determine species ability to habitat track.
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1 - University of Missouri St Louis, Department of Biology, Research 223, 8001 Natural Bridge Road, Umsl, St Louis, Missouri, 63121, USA
2 - Missouri Botanical Gardens, Research, 4344 Shaw Boulevard, Saint Louis, MO, 63110, United States
3 - Missouri Botanical Gardens, Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, 4344 Shaw Boulevard, Saint Louis, MO, 63110, United States
Presentation Type: Symposium or Colloquium Presentation
Location: Stevens 2/Hilton
Date: Wednesday, July 11th, 2007
Time: 10:45 AM